Poll Results Reveal Large Field of Engaged But Undecided Independent Voters
Results to Complement IFC News Election Special "Introducing the Circus" Premiering December 9
New York, NY – December 6, 2007 – With the first presidential primaries less than a month away, IFC announced the results of a new independent survey examining the American electorate's knowledge of and outlook on the Presidential candidates and the upcoming primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
The poll results underscore the growing importance of the independent vote in the 2008 Election. While clearly engaged in the electoral process and informed on the issues, independents are also undecided and unimpressed with the current field of candidates, with 49% reporting they are dissatisfied with the current field of candidates.
The national survey was conducted for IFC by E-Poll Market Research as part of IFC's growing News division, on-air and online at IFC.com. Leading up to the '08 Election, IFC News will help viewers deconstruct American politics and the electoral process; showcase key stories, issues and events from popular and political culture; and highlight the role of independent thought within the political landscape through a series of political surveys and exclusive specials. This new poll will complement IFC News' premiere election special, "Introducing the Circus", which debuts Sunday, December 9 and will serve as an introduction to the network's election coverage as well as IFC News political reporters Will Rabbe and Sarah Scully.
"The results of our survey show a reasonably galvanized Democratic party, a Republican party in disarray, and a bloc of extremely engaged, but unimpressed Independents," said Evan Shapiro, General Manager of IFC. "With 57% of Democrats satisfied with their field of candidates; and Republicans unsure of theirs – 39% are satisfied and 38% are dissatisfied – it seems to portend a long, perhaps confusing primary season for the GOP. While Independent voters are clearly paying attention, with 49% dissatisfied with the current field of candidates, they clearly have yet to be won over."
"Maybe most surprising, though, is the continued strength of Senator Clinton and surge of Governor Huckabee. Despite some recent rough days, Senator Clinton beats all comers among all respondents; more than doubles Senator Obama among Democrats; and receives a surprisingly strong 4% from Republicans. Governor Huckabee comes in a strong third among Republicans; yet leads all other Republican candidates in the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina."
"However, with less than a month before the first primary vote, 28% of voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina are still 'not sure' for whom they will cast their vote. 'Not sure' is a stronger response than preference for any candidate, and demonstrates that this still may be anyone's race."
When analyzing the American electorate's knowledge of and outlook on current candidates and the approaching primaries, the following survey questions are among those that were asked of those registered to vote in the 2008 Election:
1) Are you aware of the 2008 presidential primary schedule? YES
Total Respondents: 43%
IA/NH/SC Residents: 40%
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 46%
Independents: 42%
2) Do you know when your state's presidential primary is? YES
Total Respondents: 36%
IA/NH/SC Residents: 56%
Democrats: 41%
Republicans: 35%
Independents: 34%
3) How much do you agree or disagree that the people of New Hampshire are representatives of the nation? AGREE (Agree strongly or Somewhat agree)
Total Respondents: 9%
IA/NH/SC Residents: 16%
Democrats: 12%
Republicans: 5%
Independents: 10%
4) How much do you agree or disagree that the people of New Hampshire are representatives of the nation? DISAGREE (Disagree somewhat or Disagree strongly)
Total Respondents: 63%
IA/NH/SC Residents: 49%
Democrats: 58%
Republicans: 69%
Independents: 65%
5) How much do you agree or disagree that the people of Iowa are representatives of the nation? AGREE (Agree strongly or Somewhat agree)
Total Respondents: 13%
IA/NH/SC Residents: 30%
Democrats: 13%
Republicans: 13%
Independents: 17%
6) How much do you agree or disagree that the people of Iowa are representatives of the nation? DISAGREE (Disagree somewhat or Disagree strongly)
Total Respondents: 55%
IA/NH/SC Residents: 30%
Democrats: 54%
Republicans: 55%
Independents: 53%
7) How satisfied are you with the current field of candidates running for president?
| (Very/Some) | (Very/Some) | ||
| SATISFIED | NEITHER | DISSATISFIED | |
| Total Respondents: |
42% | 24% | 34% |
| IA/NH/SC Residents: | 59% | 31% | 10% |
| Democrats: | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| Republicans: | 39% | 23% | 38% |
| Independents: | 26% | 25% | 49% |
8.) If the Presidential election were held today, which of the following candidates would you be most likely to vote for?
Total Respondents: Hillary Rodham Clinton: 23%; Not Sure 19%; Rudy Giuliani 13%; Barack Obama 12%; John Edwards 7%
Democrats: Hillary Rodham Clinton: 41%; Barack Obama: 19%; Not Sure: 12%; John Edwards: 11%; Rudy Giuliani: 4%
Republicans: Rudy Giuliani: 30%; Not Sure: 23%; Fred Thompson: 11%; Mike Huckabee: 10%; Mitt Romney: 8%
Independents: Not Sure: 19%; Hillary Rodham Clinton: 14%; Barack Obama: 11%; Rudy Giuliani: 10%; John Edwards: 8%; Mike Huckabee: 8%
IA/NH/SC Residents: Not Sure: 28%; Hillary Rodham Clinton: 23%; Barack Obama 12%; Mike Huckabee: 10%; Rudy Giuliani: 9%
E-Poll randomly selected qualified respondents from their nationwide proprietary panel to participate in an online survey. IFC designed the questionnaire, with input from E-Poll Market Research. E-Poll conducted the survey which was fielded from November 27 to November 29, 2007. There were a total of N=1,089 completed surveys meeting all demographic and screening criteria. A total of N=1,089 completes yields a margin of error of (+, -) 3%.
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About E-Poll Market Research
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